Deepfakes, manipulated videos synthesized by deep learning, are the newest tools in the misinformation arsenal box. Easily accessible via open-source applications, they offer a cheap and efficient way to create deceptive videos of public figures. How powerful are deepfakes? New research finds that misinformation consumed in a video format is no more effective than misinformation in textual headlines or audio recordings. However, the persuasiveness of deepfakes is equal and comparable to these other media formats like text and audio.
Test 1
The research used two tests to measure the effectiveness of deepfake messaging among 5,750 respondents. The first test was conducted in a social media feed environment, surrounded by regular social media content.
Respondents saw or heard either a deepfake video, a fake audio, a SNL-skit like exaggeration, or a text headline. Deepfake stimuli featured Senator Elizabeth Warren in several scenarios. In them, Warren:
Calls Biden a pedophile
Calls Trump a pedophile
Revives an old controversy about identifying with indigenous people.
Creates an unexpected controversy about LGBTQ lifestyle
Goes back on a political position that eliminating student loan debt for anyone is fair or realistic
In all, just under half (47%) of respondents believed the deepfake video was real. However, the deepfake scored no better or worse compared to the audio or text false messaging.
Further, the research delved into respondent characteristics (e.g., gender, income, political party and more) to see if any are predictors of susceptibility to deepfakes. The results showed no significant differential between deepfakes vs. false text vs. audio misinformation. However, selective acceptance of information based on previous beliefs may influence an individual’s response to deepfakes.
Test 2
The second test alerted respondents to look for misinformation. Participants were asked to identify if a video was true or fake. In all, 55% of the videos were identified correctly. Interestingly, political orientation did have an impact here. Both Republicans and Democrats underestimated the authenticity of real videos if it went against their party or candidate. They were much more likely to call a real video fake if it made their political leader or party look bad.
Seeing is not necessarily believing these days. Based on these findings, deepfakes do not facilitate the dissemination of misinformation more than false texts or audio content. However, like all misinformation, deepfakes are dangerous to democracy and media trust as a whole. The best way to combat misinformation and deepfakes is through education. Informed digital citizens are the best defense.
“Women’s representation in the news has flatlined (if not reversed) in the 21st century.” That was one of the damning conclusions in the recent report The Missing Perspectives of Women in News by Luba Kassova.
Structural marginalization
The claim is drawn from many factors including analysis of online news publications from six countries – the U.K., U.S., Nigeria, India, South Africa, and Kenya. The report also cited that, in political coverage, men accounted for up to seven times more of the voices heard than women.
It cited from a separate report: “Given the deeply political nature of the Covid-19 crisis, women’s structural marginalization in the political leadership roles established in response to the crisis locks in the suppression of women’s voices in the story.”
Some of the research used was conducted by Media Ecosystems Analysis Group, which wrote, for a study conducted between 1 March and 15 April 2020, that “when looking at non-coronavirus stories, gender equality metrics tend to be better than 2019 levels.”
Taking control
So, what are journalists doing differently for non-Covid stories? It comes down to control. And we’ve made control a core principle of the BBC’s 50:50 Project, which uses data to increase the number of women contributors on content. Control in this context means a journalist or content-maker’s ability to choose the people they include in their article, TV, or radio news piece.
For example, when the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes an announcement around the latest coronavirus restrictions, a journalist would be compelled to include a statement from him. He is intrinsic to the storytelling. Therefore, he’s not an element of the news item that can be controlled. However, sourcing the business owner impacted by the new announcement is in the power of the journalist to control.
This is what 50:50 concentrates on. It looks to create change by identifying the voices that are in the power of the journalist and content-maker to influence, and it is working to increase women’s representation at the BBC.
Data effects change
Understanding what content-makers can control has required the BBC to subtly change its thinking. BBC News presenter Ros Atkins, who started 50:50 in 2017, talks of how he wanted to move the BBC from being in a “constant state of trying” to increase women’s representation to actually doing it.
His approach was simple: Use data to effect change.
“We ask content creators to count each of the contributors in their work that they control and try to reach 50% women over a month. Every person who counts, counts as one. That makes the data collection very simple,” explained Atkins.
In the earlier Boris Johnson example, this would mean the British Prime Minister would not count but the business owner would. And counting people once, no matter how many times they appear in a piece, means the monitoring can be done quickly.
Atkins continued: “The approach means you can measure your work as you produce it, when it is still fresh in your mind. That gives the data the best chance to influence your thinking and your actions.”
Find new voices
The golden rule of 50:50 is that the best contributor always takes part. Atkins explains that it is not a quota system. Rather, “It is an opportunity to identify where representation may be lacking and then for content-makers to go out and see if they can find new voices to enrich their content, while improving the output’s gender balance.”
There are more than 650 teams across the BBC taking part in 50:50. That means not just the news, but also sports, factual and entertainment are seeking out new voices themselves. To support their search there is also a central expert database with more than 1,500 women contributors available to the content teams.
Implementing these actions – using data to effect change, measure what you control and widening the pool of voices – has made a tangible impact at the BBC – and the audience has noticed. A survey of 2,000 BBC online users found that 39% had noticed a shift toward more women contributors and 32% of women aged 25 to 34 are now consuming more content as a result.
The impact
Lara Joannides, 50:50 Project Lead
In March 2020, as the world went into lockdown, two-thirds of BBC teams that submitted data reached 50% women representation. This is up from a third when they joined the project.
50:50 Project Lead Lara Joannides, who spearheads the initiative inside the BBC, had feared that the challenges of coronavirus could have a detrimental impact on representation because 50:50 is a voluntary scheme, and the Corporation moved down to critical services. Despite this, the challenge results saw a nine percentage point increase on the previous year.
“The determination of BBC colleagues to make change and the conditions created by the pandemic have resulted in a really positive shift,” said Joannides. “We’re confident that while there is still a way to go, we’ll be able to maintain and improve on these figures going forward.”
The Covid effect
In more recent months, the BBC wanted to better understand the impact Covid-19 may have had on the representation initiative. So, the BBC took more than 2,500 snapshots of the gender balance on its programmes, online content, and events across a six-month period. Between June and November last year, the BBC took 2,563 snapshots, with 1,219 (48%) reaching 50% women contributors. During the same period in 2019, we took 2,528 snapshots and 988 (39%) reached the 50%. As mentioned, that represented a nine percentage point increase on the same period in the previous year.
Fran Unsworth, Director of BBC News
For Director of BBC News Fran Unsworth, a key factor behind increasing women’s representation has been the removal of barriers in the news making process that existed before the pandemic. “We’ve all embraced new ways of working this year. One definite benefit is that we’ve had a wider range of guests on air,” she said.
Such a theory is supported by the content-makers themselves including Rachel Foley, Senior Journalist and 50:50 Lead for the BBC News Channel. “There haven’t been many upsides to Covid-19. But one is that it appears to have made it easier for women to appear on air,” said Foley. “I’ve noticed more female contributors are able to speak to us live on the BBC News Channel since the pandemic began because they can do so from their own homes using apps like Zoom or Skype.”
Dr. Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh and a regular contributor on BBC News programmes, is one such example. “Not having to go anywhere has been absolutely brilliant,” she explained.
“It’s just made it much more possible for me to fit it in with my family responsibilities as well as my working life. It’s now not unusual for me to do TV or radio interviews before my youngest goes to school in the morning. I’d not been able to easily do that before.”
Collaboration now
The Kassova Report may see the women’s perspective as missing overall however, it also points to solutions. In fact, the report cited 50:50 as one of them. It points out how BBC News achieved “a wave of change in a short space of time against all odds and despite the numerous societal, cultural and systemic barriers that stand in their way.”
Since launch, more than 75 organizations across 22 countries have begun to do so as well by using 50:50 to monitor their content and communications to reach gender balance. In October, the BBC’s Director-General Tim Davie invited more organizations to join the 50:50 partners network saying that it is “only together we can deliver positive change.”
50:50 is simple solution to increasing women’s voices on content but it is an effective one. It cannot fix a company’s workforce inequalities but it can act as a tool in a its diversity and inclusion armory.
I truly believe that the more of us embracing the 50:50 way the more likely we will be that, one day, we will read a report on gender representation that is not about the absence of women’s voices but the inclusion of them – loud and clear.
About the author
Nina Goswami is the BBC’s Creative Diversity Lead and is spearheading initiatives to support the Corporation’s aspiration that its on-air representation reflects society. Nina is also a journalist and, before her current post, was a BBC News senior producer. She has worked in media her whole professional career including The Sunday Times and The Sunday Telegraph.
With restaurants, bars and clubs closed, you might assume that Covid has created a surge in live TV viewing, but it has not. If you compared U.S. TV audiences in September 2020 with the previous year, all television watching was actually down 10% during prime time. This may seem counter intuitive considering that the average time spent interacting with media has shot up 17% to a whopping 12 hours, 21 minutes a day according to Nielsen’s Total Audience Report for August. However, digging into the reasons why reveals important opportunities to re-engage audiences.
There has long been a simplistic narrative that live sports viewership is declining. Yet the reality is that huge amounts of sports content is still being consumed. And that number is growing, especially in international markets. The change is predominantly around two axes. The first is that sport is no longer “the only game in town.” It must co-exist within a much wider array of activities. The second shift is that fans are redefining what “sport” content means to them – along with how they want to consume it.
Feeding frenzy
This diversity of content is highlighted by 2020 offering up another landmark. As the year when time spent using an app and/or web via a smartphone or tablet finally overtook live and time-shifted TV. This cross-over has undoubtedly accelerated due to Covid, given increased home working, less travel, and more screen time. However, the data has been moving that way for a few years. Nielsen also points out that 25% of total TV consumption is via streaming. This includes the rise of highlights and “instant” sports news services that are the equivalent of fast food compared to the three-hour banquet of a typical NFL game.
Highlights packages are not new but what has changed is the way in which they are delivered. The big networks have jumped onboard. Fox, ESPN, and others have now added more content available via the web. Yet the mindset for many is still around the “big game” and reporting that fits into a traditional schedule.
In a generation, Netflix transitioned from renting a million DVDs through the mail to touching 200 million monthly global subscribers. However, sports media still trails behind the curve when it comes to the model of instant access.
Bleacher gets it right
However, sports publications like Bleacher Report highlight one possible direction. The Turner owned brand has always delivered exquisite reportage but its rapid diversification into video and social has been striking.
Its “House of Highlights,” an Instagram feed offering highlight clips across several sports, now reaches over 20 million subscribers. Their viewership that has grown 150% in just two years. Highlights describes itself as “Everything you need to see in sports and youth culture.” It offers huge amounts of user generated content. And, while this content is still sports themed, it has much broader in its appeal – especially to younger audiences.
Bleacher is joined by a growing cohort of app and clip-based ways to consume sports content including CBS Sports and Fotmob – with the latter particularly good at notifications. If done well, personalized mobile app notifications, can drive customers into full game viewing as well as scores and highlights.
These brands and others recognize that it’s not all about the game. They help people get their highlights and sports fix from following athletes, teams, leagues, and media companies via social on the go. They also feed the growing sports engagement around fantasy and sports betting. However, these data points do not necessarily translate into full game viewing.
Breaking bread
The fear of cannibalizing traditional TV audiences through online offerings is still deeply ingrained in the psyche of TV executives. But instant gratification culture means that failure to offer a wider buffet of visual sport experiences will make decline inevitable.
And it’s not just creating a like-for-like facsimile. The audience expectation of TV watching versus engaging with on-demand via smartphone, embedded highlights on Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, or the cacophony of social-led platforms requires producers to rethink program formats.
This raises several challenges. It starts with nurturing a new generation of creatives that are digital natives, with the ability to engage with fans of today. There’s also a need for technical retooling to simplify the production and distribution process. This enables content to be disseminated easily across multiple platforms. It needs to be done efficiently and with the controls in place to ensure that rights obligations are enforced as demanded by contract terms. Last, but no means least, is the ability to monetize multiple platforms by spreading CPM across a wider reach and unlocking far more targeted advertising models.
Innovation zone
A great example of innovation in action is NFL RedZone, an all-in-one channel that when a team reaches the 20-yard line, (i.e. the “red zone”) cuts to the local broadcast of that game. The channel also offers the option to watch any turnovers, game-changing plays and scoring plays outside of the designated area. RedZone also has an “octabox” mode with simultaneous 8 game highlights designed for fantasy football fans.
This ability to deliver “highlight packages on the fly” uses dynamic playlists. It is is part of a surge in Cloud based technologies that are leading the charge to build streaming platforms that can pivot output to match the increasingly diverse audience profile.
The long-term issue is more cultural than technical. Live sport is still a huge deal in terms of direct and ad-related revenue. Messing with a successful formula is certainly a hard call to make. However, the Bleacher report and its siblings illustrate ways to respond to a shift in audience demand. Ignoring the opportunity makes the prospect of an empty dinner table much more likely.
With the continued presence of the coronavirus, 2021 appears far from “business as usual.” However, for many publishers, the pandemic acted as an accelerator in media innovation. New ideas for formats, operations and business models were quickly put into action. Now, we see that many of these quick pivots in business practices are becoming long-term plans. Reuters Institute’s annual report, Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2021, identifies changes, trends and predictions for the media marketplace. Reuters surveyed 234 media leaders across 43 countries to create the report.
Two key themes identified in this study include newsroom transformation and a renewed focus on revenue diversification efforts (see full report for additional trends and predictions).
Newsroom transformation
Journalists continue to work remotely and use online tools like Zoom, Slack, and Teams for interviews and collaboration. 2021 brings a remix of the in-person and virtual to the newsroom. However, the sustainability of hybrid newsrooms looks uncertain with many questioning the creativity and production quality delivered in a virtual setting.
According to Reuters, journalists want more face-to-face interactions and to renew a community focus in their work. That said, new technologies and approaches may offer more community participation with crowd-sourced content and audience-driven investigations. In terms of format and delivery, news stories will focus more on data and visual storytelling formats. Breaking down complex stories to create easily understandable content is a key objective.
Revenue diversification
Media businesses face continued competition from Google and Facebook, which account for most of the advertising growth in the marketplace. This leaves publishers with little to no growth in their advertising revenues. Given this reality, publishers continue their efforts to grow digital subscriptions and other reader revenue in 2021. Further, publishers are exploring new member benefits and price reductions to retain readers who subscribed during Covid-19.
Reuters’ data shows that publishers, on average, report four different revenue streams as being important or very important to them this year. The top four revenue streams publishers are focusing on include subscriptions (76%); display advertising (66%); native advertising (61%) and events (40%).
Ecommerce opportunities
In addition, e-commerce is forecast to double over the next four years to $7 trillion, driving publisher interest in this area. Many plan to curate their content to offer a direct consumer pathway to purchases. Reuters cites Wirecutter from the New York Times and the Strategist from New York Magazine/Vox Media, as examples of successful sites earning affiliate revenue. Publishers are also joining the e-shopping sites, like Buzzfeed’s Tasty brand. They now create their own cooking products and link to the Tasty site.
Others seek to join in the subscription economy. They are testing their strength in selling other company’s subscription offerings in areas such as music, fitness, flowers, and food. Publishers with scale and strong data targeting may prove to profitable in these sales efforts.
Future focus
2021 looks to be another year characterized by experimentation and transformation. Publishers find themselves providing content across multiple connection points. However, many product offerings and end-goals remain the same. Publishers continue to focus on offering relevant and engaging content in exchange for consumer loyalty and long-term sustainability. The road to success is the ability to be nimble while speedily translating new learnings into actionable business practices.
Just this past week I was buying lemon sole for dinner at our local seafood market. My friend Joe D, the proprietor, has been running this business for more than 30 years. Yes, you will pay a premium for his tuna, crab legs, oysters and salmon. But as the saying goes: “You get what you pay for.”
Sure, Stop and Shop, Acme and even Whole Foods are cheaper. But when the family sits down to dinner it is worth that extra 10% or so to benefit from the highest quality supply path to your table. That’s the kind of optimization you can taste!
Complexity deconstructed
It occurred to me while thinking about this article that our sole meunière might be a nice way to demystify the sometimes overly complex language and the digital advertising industry’s fascination with jargon and acronyms. After all isn’t what we want just a better experience for our audiences, publishers and advertisers?
There are so many things right about the incredible content that can be discovered and enjoyed on the internet. And our industry has rightfully become the largest advertising marketplace on the planet as a result. Nevertheless, some aspects of the business are due for renovation. Apologies for extending the cuisine theme again, but let’s face it, there are too many cooks in our kitchen. We have every reason to ask ourselves why we tolerate an overabundance of SSPs who are largely undifferentiated sources of the same impressions.
Quality vs. commodity
A successful SPO strategy will benefit publishers who consistently deliver the highest quality content, engagement, audience, and impression value. Time on site, viewability, editorial excellence, desirable demographics and psychographics will be worth more to buyers. These publishers will capture share and increase revenues.
Simultaneously, we must build more effective and more efficient methods for buyers to identify, select and purchase only good, better, and best content within the internet’s marketplace of ideas. In effect, we must de-commoditize supply. This will go a long way toward eliminating fraud, increasing transparency, and reducing the non-media leakage of third-party fees.
Only buy the best
Industry leading programmatic consultancy Jounce Media states:
Supply path optimization is an emerging technique by which programmatic buyers bias their bidding toward a short list of preferred pathways that enable high scale, high efficiency inventory access.
Therefore, when shopping for the highest performing supply available buyers should pay special attention to the pathways they choose. Supply Path Optimization done right will focus on tangible qualities such as viewability, IVT and scale enabling KPIs to be met with fewer wasted impressions and greater efficiency.
About the author
Bruce Brandfon is Chief Media Officer of Duration Media. Prior to that he was EVP of Webspectator, and before that VP and Managing Director at Publicitas. Before joining Publicitas, Bruce was VP and Publisher of Scientific American. He has also held leadership positions at The Philadelphia Media Network, Newsweek, and Time Inc. Bruce is Director of the Board of Advisors at Planet Forward, and an Adjunct Professor of Media Studies at Westchester Community College.
Ping Bruce if you’d like to know more about why and how Duration Media consistently outperforms almost all other Supply Paths in the programmatic ecosystem. (And, yes, he’ll also tell you where Joe D’s fish market is.)
Many publishers have experimented with virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), but few have gone beyond test projects into longer term developments. However, as mobile devices have become more advanced and social platforms have started integrating AR technology into filters and tools, audiences are warming up to using AR as part of their everyday lives. This presents an opportunity for publishers.
USA TODAY was among those running early experiments. Now, the publisher has a team dedicated to emerging technologies. They’re exploring how stories can be told using virtual reality, augmented reality, data visualizations, and more. It’s a way for the publisher to enhance their storytelling capabilities, as well as drive users to spend more time in USA TODAY’s native app.
“As AR technology became embedded natively into mobile devices, we saw an opportunity to really adapt,” said Ray Soto, USA TODAY’s Director of Emerging Technology. “People were really interested in the new technologies, and our audiences were starting to seek out different experiences.”
The publisher’s Emerging Technologies team achieved “exceptional engagement” across their immersive stories in 2020. From interactive guides on germ spreading to an AR graphic novel on the 100th anniversary of women winning the right to vote, USA TODAY boosted its total views of interactive content 288% year over year. Their interactive experiences have been viewed by more than 1.3 million people over the past 12 months.
On the back of such strong metrics, Soto spoke to us about what makes USA TODAY’s AR content a success. He also discusses their plans to further develop immersive storytelling approaches.
Explore and discover
There are no restrictions on the subject matter of an AR story for USA TODAY. They have produced interactive experiences on topics from science and technology to history and entertainment. However, the type of story matters. So, the team work from the outset to ensure it’s one that their audience can spend time with, digest, and can come back to.
“We encourage all our reporters and all our editorial teams to reach out when they’ve got a story that they feel AR could be a great component of,” said Soto. “We don’t want to replace the existing story that they have. Rather, we want to use it as a form of storytelling that provides a different perspective.”
His Emerging Technology team sits with the editor. Together, they brainstorm what type of enhancement would be appropriate for the story, from traditional video to AR, or even 360 interactive widgets on the web. The core question they bear in mind at all times is one of value.
“We need to make sure we’re leveraging AR in a way that adds value to the story and ensures that we’re not treating the technology as a gimmick,” Soto emphasized. “We really don’t want to do a ‘one hit’ type story. It comes down to two words: explore and discover. And we have to feel very strongly that interactive AR storytelling is a great path forward.”
Development and collaboration
The timeline for turning around these kinds of stories can vary, according to Soto. For long-form and major editorial initiatives like their “Women of the Century” project, development can take from six to eight weeks. These types of stories involve collaborating across the business, with reporters, editors, designers, graphics researchers, narrators, and others contributing.
However, the team has achieved faster turnaround times with more news-driven stories. Some of USA TODAY’s Covid-related interactive content was developed and released in days. These were among the brand’s most engaged with pieces in 2020.
One example, “Flattening the curve: An AR guide to social distancing” was developed as a gamified experience. Users were offered a series of behavior choices relating to social distancing, in order to help teach users safe practices. The experience, developed in just five days, was viewed over 164,000 times.
AR and social media
At present, much of the AR development has been done on USA TODAY’s own app. One of Soto’s priorities for 2021 is to expand beyond the publisher’s native platforms. He plans to further explore Snapchat, Instagram and other social platforms, not just on the storytelling side but from a marketing perspective as well.
“We are looking to expand because for us, we see an opportunity to learn,” he said. “What does social engagement look like for an AR story through Instagram or Snapchat? Where are they at with accessible storytelling?”
Strengthening their AR experiences on social media will be a valuable way of introducing new audiences to the publisher’s stories. Native app users are valuable. However, social media users are more likely to share stories and experiences that resonate with them. This, in turn, helps build trust in USA TODAY’s journalism.
Visualizing the future
Soto also has data visualizations and 3D interactives in his sights. He’s also thinking about how they can apply AI to visualizations. “What is really exciting for me though is the convergence of all these technologies,” he explained. “How can we work with 5G, AI and AR? How can we leverage that conversation with our brand from not just the storytelling, but also from a product perspective?”
For now, the technology for VR hasn’t advanced to the point where enough people have the devices to make significant development on those platforms worth it. However, Soto is optimistic about these technologies becoming more accessible and cost-effective.
Mobilizing monetization
The success of the team’s work in 2020 has set them up for a strong year ahead. The primary focus at the moment is on growing audience confidence in engaging with the stories, as well as increasing the time spent with USA TODAY’s content. As these metrics increase, they are beginning to explore opportunities across the business to test the viability of AR storytelling as a revenue stream, such as branded content.
“There is a lot of interest, which is fantastic,” Soto explained. “We’re very fortunate to be able to share our numbers like we did for 2020, which shows that our audiences are going to [the app], they’re spending quite a bit of time there.”
“We’re focused on making sure that it’s a nice user journey, from the native app into the story, and then following whatever CTA [call to action] we might have embedded in there. So we’re beginning to explore those revenue opportunities.”
A path to profitability may not be clear yet. But as the technology evolves to enable faster and cheaper development of immersive storytelling, publishers like USA TODAY, who are spending time refining their approach, will be at an advantage.
There is no doubt that 2020 was a year for the books. The pandemic turned nearly every aspect of life upside down, affecting many industries. While some were severely hurt, others greatly benefited. The advertising industry was no different, experiencing ups and downs.
Looking ahead to this new year, we predict there will be some major turning points, particularly in OTT, social media, video and conferences. Here at MediaRadar we’ve taken a look back at 2020’s unique advertising trends and predicted what 2021 will bring.
The OTT shakeout will play out faster than expected
Last year, we predicted that the numerous OTT launches would lead to a crowded, overly competitive market. Since then, we’ve seen a significant movement of advertisers to the new platforms and the pandemic has been a large catalyst of this shift.
For 2021, our prediction remains, although we think the process is accelerating. What’s causing it to speed up?
Competition in the OTT space is bruising. HBO is going to get a seat at the table, as they’re bringing blockbuster movies directly to their platform. Like a game of poker, they are raising the stakes. Moving forward, it will be more expensive for others to win if they don’t match the quality and breadth of offerings currently in the market.
Disney and Netflix are also consuming a disproportionate share of the winnings, with Disney’s growth happening much faster than expected. These platforms’ tremendous success, however, may leave fewer consumers able to buy alternate paid subscription services (SVOD), as households won’t subscribe to every OTT service.
Many of the top firms, including Disney and AT&T, are saddled with meaningful debt. This will encourage firms to sell their under-performing or less-core assets. For example, AT&T sold Crunchyroll to Sony in December 2020. Wall Street Journal reported, “Crunchyroll is the latest asset that AT&T is cutting loose to trim the debt load.”
Years worth of change in the OTT space were squeezed into 2020. This means the endgame will arrive faster than anticipated.
Social will remain powerful in 2021, but year-over-year growth will be tepid
While 2020 disrupted many types of business models, social media was not one of them.
In 2020, Facebook’s ad sales performance was tremendous, as seen in its stock ending the year up 83% from their March lows, while popular app TikTok claims to have reached almost 20% of Americans every single week.
But, 2021 will offer fewer advantages. Take away the mandatory stay-at-home quarantine, as well as the most generous presidential election ad spend ever, and what is left could be more challenging. There could also be a hostile regulatory environment, with bi-partisan support to curb ad targeting. Apple has already promised to disable the ability to track and target users across apps on iPhones in early 2021.
Time spent on video will decline
Online video certainly benefited from the increased time people spent at home during the quarantine. But, as the population is vaccinated, the amount of time spent away from our screens will increase.
Based on Alphabet’s quarterly filings, YouTube revenue was up 30% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2020 to $5B. In the summer of 2021, it will be a challenge to reproduce these numbers, especially in Q3 when people spend more time outdoors.
The return of in-person events will bring much-needed relief
Live events have proven to be the hardest area of life to migrate online during the pandemic. This is not a case where people feel virtual has been a positive substitute.
In business, live trade shows allow for professional and social interaction, facilitating deal-making, etc. Without the ability to meet in person, the demand for lead generation has increased significantly.
Luckily, we expect the second half of 2021 to be a major turning point for the conferences industry, with in-person events returning en masse. Informa, one of the largest event companies in the world, saw its stock price shoot up 21% in a single day when the efficacy of early vaccines was announced.
Advertising trends will look more like 2019 in the second half of 2021
The popular logic today is that the world has changed and, even when vaccines are administered and the world begins to emerge from Covid-19, we will not be returning to what we knew before. However, it will not be as radically different as some have hypothesized.
In 2020, we saw markets like live events, travel, and restaurants drastically reduce their ad spending as they cut costs to survive. Meanwhile, children’s toys, food subscription boxes, RV’s, and communication services like Microsoft Teams accelerated their advertising to capitalize on opportunities in the market.
However, we do not expect this to last, especially as we get into the second half of the year. For example, we expect travel companies to begin advertising soon, to attempt to lure consumers and capitalize on pent-up demand. China’s Golden Week holiday offered a preview, as over 500M people traveled during the holiday, 80% of pre-Covid levels.
Looking ahead
Not only will 2021 bring the much-needed Covid-19 vaccine, but also some much-needed relief for businesses of all kinds. In the advertising space, we look forward to seeing the industries most impacted by the coronavirus return to more stable advertising spending.
The “Streaming Wars” will be interesting without quarantined consumers, the return of live, in-person events will restore a key part of the B2B market, and much more. Most importantly, we look forward to the breath of fresh air that this new year will undoubtedly bring.
Women in the media and entertainment industry are making slow but steady progress in closing Hollywood’s gender gap. According to the Celluloid Ceiling Report, women working behind the scenes in the industry’s top 100 films increased from 20% in 2019 to 21% as representation in the top 250 films grew from 21% to 23%. The Celluloid Ceiling Report is produced by the Center for the Study of Women in Television and Film at San Diego State University. It is one of the industry’s most comprehensive study of women’s employment in film and this is its 23rd year of reporting.
Key findings:
Women in the top 100 grossing films:
Women accounted for 16% of directors in 2020, up from 12% in 2019.
Women did best as producers (28%), followed by executive producers (21%), editors (18%), directors (16%), writers (12%), and cinematographers (3%). Important to know, female writers (12%) declined by 8 percentage points from 2019.
Women in the top 250 grossing films:
Women comprised 18% of directors working in 2020, up from 13% in 2019.
Women accounted for 30% of all producers, 22% of all editors, 21% of all executive producers, 17% of all writers and 6% of all cinematographers.
While there is progress in the number of women working in movies, there is still a long way to go to close this industry’s gender gap.
Of the top 250 grossing films in 2020:
94% did not employ a female cinematographer,
80% did not employ a female director,
73% did not employ a female writer,
72% did not employ a female editor, and
41% did not employ a female executive producer.
Females champion one another
The study also found that films with at least one female director are much more likely to hire women to be editors, cinematographers, and other behind-the-scenes jobs. In fact, of films with female directors, 53% of the writers and 39% of the editors are also female. In comparison, only 8% of the writers and 18% of the editors are women in movies with male directors.
Both 2019 and 2020 registered growth in women working in films, however, there is still a large imbalance of females employed in this industry compared to men. In fact, a full 80% of today’s top films do not have female representation at the highest level. Unfortunately, more than two-thirds of films (67%) employ 0 to 4 women in the roles mentioned above, while 5% of films employ 0 to 4 men in those jobs. It is important to highlight the underemployment of women in films and the need for studios to hire more women in significant roles. It is time to ensure a gender balance in the entertainment business and to make certain more women are involved in the strategic decision-making process of the industry.
The identity solution landscape is growing fast. I can count at least 10 solutions that launched last year alone. Third-party cookies are approaching their final exit. Identity is seen as a viable and sustainable way to keep digital advertising running and help large and small businesses alike survive. That’s all good news.
But like most things in adtech land, parsing through how technical solutions differ often requires an advanced degree and a good translator. It is technical for a reason. However, that doesn’t mean technology can’t be accessible and approachable.
I’ve spent the bulk of the last two years working on an identity solution, so I have some opinions. I’ve also spent a good deal of that time talking to other identity solution providers. There are a lot of smart people working on very difficult problems from a multitude of angles. If you’re not excited about the amount of innovation happening at this tremendous clip, you may be in the wrong industry.
For those not steeped in the tech parlance, however, vetting identity solution partners is daunting. So, in an effort to provide clarity, I’ve culled my top four starter questions that every identity solution partner should be able to answer. Frankly, these are questions every marketer, publisher, SSP, DSP, and data provider should ask.
Four critical questions to ask identity solution partners
1. Does your solution support the authenticated or open web?
The authenticated web refers to those users that register and login to a site, app, or platform. Email address is the most common form of authentication, and that identifier then becomes the key to accessing content or other services. Early estimates predict that publishers can achieve at best 10-20% of authenticated users by 2022. That’s great progress to be sure. But what about the other 80% of consumers? Capturing their attention is just as important as authenticated users. This is particularly true for those businesses interested in top funnel activities like prospecting. For maximum scale and coverage, consider leveraging both authenticated and open web identity solutions.
2. Does your solution support enriched or empty IDs?
An enriched ID is exactly what it sounds like. These solutions were built with data enrichment at the core with the goal of helping marketers and publishers execute more relevant and responsible advertising. Some IDs offer up to 200+ behavioral attributes within their IDs. This offers a treasure trove of privacy-compliant, pseudonymized data for targeting, optimization, reporting, frequency management, and more. But not all identity solutions are created equally. Many others are empty. They exist to leverage first-party data alone, which may sacrifice accuracy based on a single contextual visit or single point of view (the publishers), as well as scale. Additionally, some require a fee to use them and charge additional costs to coordinate and attach relevant data for addressable advertising. Weigh all of these costs and factors when evaluating your identity partners.
3. Where privacy is concerned, is your ID transparent or opaque?
You could ask “Is your ID privacy compliant.” However, the above question will tell you much more about a company’s actions when it comes to compliance. Until U.S. federal law exists, I’d advise to look to Europe’s GDPR, some of the strictest regulation around consumer privacy, for guidance on how to vet an identity partner.
GDPR prioritizes control, transparency, and accountability when it comes to consumer data. In that spirit, look for a solution that makes it easy and accessible for consumers to access, request, and delete their data. Further, seek a partner that minimizes its data collection and communicates accountable IDs to every channel. This ensures a clear, auditable trail as opposed to opaque providers who obscure themselves to users, reduce the ability to see data sharing across platforms, and hide tracking methods.
4. Is your ID solution interoperable or siloed?
You may be wondering with so many ID solutions out there, can they and how will they talk to each other? That’s an excellent question. This is a critical area to dive into with your partners for several reasons. Number one, there may be translation activity fees you need to build into your budget if the ID solution is not interoperable out of the gate. Second, if the ID isn’t freely accessible, you may experience some technical difficulties with sharing across various platforms in other regions. And, third, if the solution doesn’t permit communication across and between IDs, all that rich consumer profiling and segmentation work you did on the front-end may be lost in the lack of translation.
All the right answers
If, however, you find a solution that does all of the above — true interoperability across channels, platforms, and other IDs — that means your portfolio approach will be working most effectively. I trust these four questions will lead to lively and transparent conversations. We all need to be talking more and more openly to solve for a post-cookie, privacy-first world. What questions are you asking identity solution partners? I’d love to hear what’s top of mind for you as you navigate this landscape
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