The transition away from traditional pay-TV is accelerating. In fact, traditional TV no longer dominates the video subscription market. By 2028, traditional pay TV’s share of video subscription revenues will decrease to just one-third. Meanwhile, digital pay-TV services, also known as virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs), will increase their share from 13.2% in 2025 to 15.4% by 2028. These services, including YouTube TV, Fubo, and Sling TV, deliver linear TV content over the Internet, making them appeal to consumers seeking flexibility and lower costs than traditional pay TV.
Emarketer’s Digital Video and Trends report for Q1 2025 shows that streaming services are poised to achieve even greater growth, increasing their share of video subscription revenues by about eight percentage points by 2028. Notably, YouTube has become a significant player in the subscription business. While YouTube remains known for its free, ad-supported platform, its YouTube Premium and YouTube Music services collectively boast over 100 million subscribers. YouTube TV, which claimed 8 million U.S. subscribers in 2024, is also contributing significantly to the growth of digital pay TV.
Rising costs and consumer behavior
Although subscription revenues still dominate the streaming sector, rising prices are reshaping consumer behavior. In recent years, both traditional pay-TV and streaming services have raised prices, driven by inflation. However, streaming services have increased prices at a faster rate over the past two years, surpassing the cost growth of traditional pay TV. This price disparity has triggered consumer pushback, especially as streaming services introduce price hikes and clamp down on password sharing.
Streaming giants like Netflix, Hulu, and Disney+ employ strategies to boost profitability, including raising subscription costs and limiting account sharing. These actions, along with content cuts, have led to some consumer dissatisfaction. Despite these challenges, streaming services remain profitable on paper.
Among the streaming platforms, Hulu and Disney+ have made some of the largest price increases for their ad-free plans. While Apple TV+ stays relatively affordable, its library lags behind competitors. All the while, it has doubled its subscription price since launch.
Live sports drives subscription growth
Streaming services are capitalizing on the growing demand for live sports, which increasingly draws subscribers away from traditional TV. Major streaming platforms, such as NBCUniversal’s Peacock and Amazon Prime Video, continue to invest heavily in sports rights. This is further shifting the sports broadcasting landscape from traditional TV to streaming platforms. By 2027, digital sports viewership will surpass traditional TV viewership by 52 million viewers, signaling the ongoing transition in how consumers watch live sports.
YouTube TV’s growth and the digital pay-TV market
YouTube TV is seeing significant success among the growing digital pay-TV services. As traditional pay-TV continues to shed subscribers, YouTube TV is adding them at a steady pace. By 2026, it will become the largest pay-TV operator in the United States. Although YouTube TV is not yet profitable, it is an important player in the broader digital pay-TV market, now accounting for about one-fifth of total pay-TV subscription revenues.
The digital pay-TV market is also experiencing consolidation. In January 2025, Hulu + Live TV and Fubo TV announced a merger. Disney will hold a 70% stake in the new venture, with Fubo’s leadership overseeing operations. Although Hulu + Live TV and Fubo will remain separate offerings, this consolidation may lead to further streamlining of the digital pay-TV space.
Shifting streaming revenue streams: subscription vs. advertising
While subscriptions still represent the majority of revenue for streaming services, advertising is growing in importance. From 2023 to 2027, advertising’s share of total streaming revenues will increase by nearly four percentage points. This rise in ad spending reflects the growing significance of connected TV (CTV) platforms, a critical avenue for advertisers looking to reach consumers on streaming services.
In fact, CTV ad spending may exceed 15.8% year-over-year growth in 2025, outpacing the 10.6% growth forecast for U.S. streaming subscription revenues during the same period. However, both advertising and subscription revenues in traditional TV are in decline, though price increases for subscriptions help slow the rate of decline.
While this Emarketer report focuses on the U.S. market, it’s important to note that streaming services are also seeing significant growth worldwide. As of Q2 2024, nearly 60% of Netflix’s revenues come from outside of North America. While prices are lower in regions like Asia and South America than North America and Europe, the global growth potential for streaming services remains immense. Countries across North America, South America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are seeing high levels of subscription penetration, with streaming services continuing to expand their reach internationally.
The video subscription landscape is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Traditional TV’s dominance is slipping as streaming services and digital pay-TV providers continue to capture an increasing market share. For media executives, this shift presents both challenges and opportunities.
Subscription revenue remains the primary source of growth for streaming services. Rising costs and consumer demand for more flexible, lower-cost options continue to shape the industry. At the same time, the increasing importance of advertising revenue, coupled with the global expansion of streaming platforms, offers new avenues for monetization. Staying ahead of these trends and adapting to the evolving market dynamics is key to maintaining a competitive edge in this rapidly changing ecosystem.