Articles by: "Rande Price, Research VP – DCN"

How powerful are deepfakes in spreading misinformation?

January 25, 2021 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

Deepfakes, manipulated videos synthesized by deep learning, are the newest tools in the misinformation arsenal box. Easily accessible via open-source applications, they offer a cheap and efficient way to create deceptive videos of public figures. How powerful are deepfakes? New research finds that misinformation consumed in a video format is no more effective than misinformation in textual headlines or audio recordings. However, the persuasiveness of deepfakes is equal and comparable to these other media formats like text and audio.

Test 1

The research used two tests to measure the effectiveness of deepfake messaging among 5,750 respondents. The first test was conducted in a social media feed environment, surrounded by regular social media content.

Respondents saw or heard either a deepfake video, a fake audio, a SNL-skit like exaggeration, or a text headline. Deepfake stimuli featured Senator Elizabeth Warren in several scenarios. In them, Warren:

Calls Biden a pedophile
Calls Trump a pedophile
Revives an old controversy about identifying with indigenous people.
Creates an unexpected controversy about LGBTQ lifestyle
Goes back on a political position that eliminating student loan debt for anyone is fair or realistic

In all, just under half (47%) of respondents believed the deepfake video was real. However, the deepfake scored no better or worse compared to the audio or text false messaging.

Further, the research delved into respondent characteristics (e.g., gender, income, political party and more) to see if any are predictors of susceptibility to deepfakes. The results showed no significant differential between deepfakes vs. false text vs. audio misinformation. However, selective acceptance of information based on previous beliefs may influence an individual’s response to deepfakes.

Test 2

The second test alerted respondents to look for misinformation. Participants were asked to identify if a video was true or fake. In all, 55% of the videos were identified correctly. Interestingly, political orientation did have an impact here. Both Republicans and Democrats underestimated the authenticity of real videos if it went against their party or candidate. They were much more likely to call a real video fake if it made their political leader or party look bad.

Seeing is not necessarily believing these days. Based on these findings, deepfakes do not facilitate the dissemination of misinformation more than false texts or audio content. However, like all misinformation, deepfakes are dangerous to democracy and media trust as a whole. The best way to combat misinformation and deepfakes is through education. Informed digital citizens are the best defense.

Industry-Research

Media trends 2021: transformed newsrooms and diversified revenue

January 19, 2021 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

With the continued presence of the coronavirus, 2021 appears far from “business as usual.” However, for many publishers, the pandemic acted as an accelerator in media innovation. New ideas for formats, operations and business models were quickly put into action. Now, we see that many of these quick pivots in business practices are becoming long-term plans. Reuters Institute’s annual report, Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2021, identifies changes, trends and predictions for the media marketplace. Reuters surveyed 234 media leaders across 43 countries to create the report.

Two key themes identified in this study include newsroom transformation and a renewed focus on revenue diversification efforts (see full report for additional trends and predictions).

Newsroom transformation

Journalists continue to work remotely and use online tools like Zoom, Slack, and Teams for interviews and collaboration. 2021 brings a remix of the in-person and virtual to the newsroom. However, the sustainability of hybrid newsrooms looks uncertain with many questioning the creativity and production quality delivered in a virtual setting.

According to Reuters, journalists want more face-to-face interactions and to renew a community focus in their work. That said, new technologies and approaches may offer more community participation with crowd-sourced content and audience-driven investigations. In terms of format and delivery, news stories will focus more on data and visual storytelling formats. Breaking down complex stories to create easily understandable content is a key objective.

Revenue diversification

Media businesses face continued competition from Google and Facebook, which account for most of the advertising growth in the marketplace. This leaves publishers with little to no growth in their advertising revenues. Given this reality, publishers continue their efforts to grow digital subscriptions and other reader revenue in 2021. Further, publishers are exploring new member benefits and price reductions to retain readers who subscribed during Covid-19.

Reuters’ data shows that publishers, on average, report four different revenue streams as being important or very important to them this year. The top four revenue streams publishers are focusing on include subscriptions (76%); display advertising (66%); native advertising (61%) and events (40%).

Ecommerce opportunities

In addition, e-commerce is forecast to double over the next four years to $7 trillion, driving publisher interest in this area. Many plan to curate their content to offer a direct consumer pathway to purchases. Reuters cites Wirecutter from the New York Times and the Strategist from New York Magazine/Vox Media, as examples of successful sites earning affiliate revenue. Publishers are also joining the e-shopping sites, like Buzzfeed’s Tasty brand. They now create their own cooking products and link to the Tasty site.

Others seek to join in the subscription economy. They are testing their strength in selling other company’s subscription offerings in areas such as music, fitness, flowers, and food. Publishers with scale and strong data targeting may prove to profitable in these sales efforts.

Future focus

2021 looks to be another year characterized by experimentation and transformation. Publishers find themselves providing content across multiple connection points. However, many product offerings and end-goals remain the same. Publishers continue to focus on offering relevant and engaging content in exchange for consumer loyalty and long-term sustainability. The road to success is the ability to be nimble while speedily translating new learnings into actionable business practices.

Diversity, Equity & Inclusion | Industry-Research

Female representation in filmmaking inches upwards

January 11, 2021 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

Women in the media and entertainment industry are making slow but steady progress in closing Hollywood’s gender gap. According to the Celluloid Ceiling Report, women working behind the scenes in the industry’s top 100 films increased from 20% in 2019 to 21% as representation in the top 250 films grew from 21% to 23%. The Celluloid Ceiling Report is produced by the Center for the Study of Women in Television and Film at San Diego State University. It is one of the industry’s most comprehensive study of women’s employment in film and this is its 23^rd year of reporting.

Key findings:

Women in the top 100 grossing films:
- Women accounted for 16% of directors in 2020, up from 12% in 2019.
- Women did best as producers (28%), followed by executive producers (21%), editors (18%), directors (16%), writers (12%), and cinematographers (3%). Important to know, female writers (12%) declined by 8 percentage points from 2019.
Women in the top 250 grossing films:
- Women comprised 18% of directors working in 2020, up from 13% in 2019.
Women accounted for 30% of all producers, 22% of all editors, 21% of all executive producers, 17% of all writers and 6% of all cinematographers.

While there is progress in the number of women working in movies, there is still a long way to go to close this industry’s gender gap.

Of the top 250 grossing films in 2020:

94% did not employ a female cinematographer,
80% did not employ a female director,
73% did not employ a female writer,
72% did not employ a female editor, and
41% did not employ a female executive producer.

Females champion one another

The study also found that films with at least one female director are much more likely to hire women to be editors, cinematographers, and other behind-the-scenes jobs. In fact, of films with female directors, 53% of the writers and 39% of the editors are also female. In comparison, only 8% of the writers and 18% of the editors are women in movies with male directors.

Both 2019 and 2020 registered growth in women working in films, however, there is still a large imbalance of females employed in this industry compared to men. In fact, a full 80% of today’s top films do not have female representation at the highest level. Unfortunately, more than two-thirds of films (67%) employ 0 to 4 women in the roles mentioned above, while 5% of films employ 0 to 4 men in those jobs. It is important to highlight the underemployment of women in films and the need for studios to hire more women in significant roles. It is time to ensure a gender balance in the entertainment business and to make certain more women are involved in the strategic decision-making process of the industry.

Advertising | Industry-Research

Publishers accelerated diversification strategies in 2020!

December 15, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

As publishers reflect on 2020, most will agree that Covid-19 took center stage. The year was filled with business struggles, but it also offered some growth opportunities. What’s New in Publishing’s (WNIP) year-in-review, Media Moments 2020, identifies “diversification” as the paramount lesson from 2020. Importantly, the report makes it clear that publishers who are dependent on advertiser revenue need to rethink their strategies and include consumer revenue streams.

WNIP’s report covers the industry’s focus on “trend acceleration.” Certainly, while there has been marketplace disruption the past two decades, nothing has accelerated market shifts quite like Covid-19. Media Moments looks at 2020 to showcase these market changes and identify winning publisher strategies.

Notable 2020 highlights

Print final shift to digital

Any print publisher who survived 2020, will need to go fully digital in 2021. In fact, Poynter reports that national newspaper circulation in the U.S. is down 30% since 2016 and 60 newsrooms closed recently due to the impact of Covid-19.

Launching a differentiated digital brand with fresh content is vital in this marketplace. Revenue diversification is key for sustainability. Offering virtual events, newsletters and podcasts are important touchpoints to broaden revenue opportunities as well as develop consumer loyalty.

Audio is an expending revenue source

Audio has proved to be a strong and viable business for publishers and they look to expand their audio businesses in 2021. Some have their business by producing dedicated podcast content while others grew through acquisitions. Many publishers are testing new formats for podcast integrations in content outside of news. Other examples include a new commentary format from AMC to complement their video business and Marvel’s experimenting with fictional content.

Spotify, iHeartRadio, and Apple are a few of the leading podcast platforms. While Spotify is among those building their content portfolio of content, others are building their podcasting infrastructure like iHeart. This year alone, Spotify acquired content producers Gimlet and The Ringer. iHeart, on the other hand, acquired podcast analytics company, Voxnest. Even given the coronavirus’ negative impact on advertising spend this year, podcasting did not register large declines. PwC’s updated predictions approximate $814M for podcasting ad revenue, just 6% below PwC and IAB’s original forecast.

Publisher exercise first-party data

In January 2020, Google announced that Chrome would phase out support for third-party cookies in the browser within two years. This didn’t come as a big surprise, given that Mozilla FireFox and Apple’s Safari made similar announcements in 2019. Of course, this trend will mandate reducing digital advertising’s reliance on cookies. As a result, an already tough seller’s marketplace for publishers is getting tougher. Fortunately, many publishers acted early and started to develop first-party data strategies, benefitting from their trusted relationship with consumers.

Once again, publishers are touting the merits of contextual advertising. And many publishers are building the tools to serve contextual advertising better than ever before. In fact, Vox Media launched Concert Ad Manager, a self-service tool for publishers to build and implement ad campaigns across the marketplace. Publishers using this tool include NBC Universal, Penske Media, Quartz, and others. This type of tool is extremely helpful to small and medium size publishers.

As the pandemic transformed our world, consumers searched for news and information to help them navigate the crisis. From dropping paywalls to record traffic, publishers responded, and they were reminded of the trust consumers place in them. By concentrating on consumer value, publishers can prioritize a consumer-first strategy and register growth in consumer revenue.

Industry-Research

News publishers are laser-focused on podcast production

December 8, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

Three quarters of Americans are familiar with podcasting and more than half of them have listened to a podcast. As a result, today’s news publishers view podcast production as an imperative. Reuters Institute’s new study, Daily news podcasts: building new habits in the shadow of coronavirus, identifies two main reasons for this decision:

News publishers recognize that daily news podcasts are levers to help drive brand loyalty and retention, and
They know that the podcasting listener is a highly valued and monetized advertising target audience of young, urban, and educated consumers.

The Reuter’s study also offers insight into daily news podcast growth and the coronavirus’ impact on this platform across six countries: U.S., U.K., France, Australia, Sweden, and Denmark.

Marketplace growth

Podcast production is booming. Across the six countries surveyed, there is a total of 102 daily news podcasts. In fact, 37 launched in the last 12 months alone.

In terms of content genres, news podcasts now comprise 7% of the estimated 1.3 million podcast shows. While daily news shows account for less than 1% of total production in the U.S., they are 10% of the top 250 episodes consumed. Further, many publishers report that daily news podcasts are doing better in advertising sales than other genres.

Pandemic impact and production pivots

The pandemic-ordered lockdown in March created publisher concerns. Without commuters listening to their daily news podcasts, many wondered if their podcasting audiences would remain. Interestingly, while daily news podcasts and other podcast genres suffered initial declines, they quickly regained their audiences. In fact, many publishers report that their advertising revenue is equal to or greater than pre-Covid-19 levels.

The coronavirus also forced podcast production to alter their routine. Interviews are no longer conducted in-person, in the studio but instead via an app in a reporter’s home. While journalists report they miss the face-to-face interview dynamic, the creativity and flexibility in the new process is welcomed.

Some best practices learned

National Public Radio emphasizes local

NPR offers seven different daily news podcasts. Their newest, Consider This, is an evening roundup of national and local news. While this format is a familiar in local radio, its new to daily news podcasts. NPR’s use of ad insertion technology creates an innovative tool to upload the local city segments for each show.

The Wall Street Journal learns through co-production

The Wall Street Journal has an audio-first production mentality. They started investing in audio a few years back by looking for audio products to add value to their subscription model. They co-produce programming with Gimlet, a pioneer an early to market podcast production house, which is now owned by Spotify. The WSJ has two new franchises, The Journal, a deep-dive show and What’s News, a round-up of business news published twice a day. As part of the co-production deal with Spotify, they also have early access to their targeted advertising products.

Vox Media’s podcast extend its brand mission

Vox sees podcasting as a great vehicle to tell stories, especially in first-person. Today Explained is their signature podcast, which helps explain the news and provide its context. It was originally a co-production with Stitcher, a podcast production studio. However, now it is an in-house production and a standout success among Vox’s 200 podcasts.

Daily news podcasts continued to grow as does consumer demand. From long, extended chats and deep dives to news roundups and bulletins, there’s no wrong format or one right length. In fact, experimentation in podcasting is often the key to success. However, it does require time and investment. While podcasting short-term goals look to growth audiences and engagement, long-term goals seek to attract advertising and sponsorship revenue. As publishers look to appeal to the next generation, audio products are a great way to begin this conversation.

Advertising | Industry-Research

Checklist for effective advertising environments: brand fitness, quality, trust

November 30, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

It is essential for marketers to question the efficacy of the outlets where they place their advertising campaigns. They must choose channels that provide a positive impact on the brand message the audience receives. Past industry studies from comScore, WGM and IAS have all found that that brand effectiveness and brand lift are highly correlated to the quality of the content channel. In fact, the consensus is that running ads on premium publisher sites had significantly higher brand effectiveness and brand lift compared to non-premium sites. The positive lift is attributed to the “halo effect” from the premium environments.

New research, Signally Success, from Richard Shotton and house51, looks at the halo effect across different media platforms (TV, newspapers, magazines, radio, social media, and video sharing sites). However, it is important to note that while social media and video sharing sites are included in the research design, digital publisher sites are not. That said, the research does expand on the halo effect, offering characteristic details about brand lift and the how they differ between advertising channels.

The findings include:

Optimum signals for brand advertising

Signaling is the driving force in every advertising campaign. Therefore, it powers each consumer purchasing decision. Shotton’s analyzes showcases advertising’s ability to drive fitness and social signals.

Fitness signals show signs of financial health, product confidence and overall brand quality. Communicating strong fitness signals informs the consumer about the financially viability associated with the brand.
Social signals include brand fame, popularity, and success. Social signals allow consumers to assess if they will form a relationship with a brand.

Each media brand’s ability to communicate these signals varies greatly. Quality content, representing financially independent and socially successful brands should be top choices for campaigns. Again, selecting the right channel for the right brand is a critical part of the equation.

Emotional trust is a brand asset

Building and maintaining emotional trust is crucial for any brand. This creates the connection point between consumer and product. Moreover, the emotion of trust is stronger than rational thoughts and can often last beyond one experience. Consumers with high levels of emotional trust are willing to give a brand a second chance even after a negative brand experience.

Brands build their reputation and deep emotional trust through years of positive product experiences (including advertising) and nurturing relationships with their consumers. Media channels must compliment the emotional trust sentiment and not distract from it.

Shotton’s research calls our attention to human behavior and the influence of psychology in media planning. It questions the methods of hypertargeting, personalization, and the cost-efficiency practice of buying low-quality content channels. It calls for marketers to identify and advertise in quality and trusted media brands. Importantly, it recognizes the positive lift from the premium environments as a key driver of necessary brand signals.

Industry-Research | Revenue

Evolving culture and tech savvy critical to publishers’ subscription strategies

November 17, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

Even prior to Covid-19, premium publishers were turning to audience revenue, mainly in the form of subscriptions, to grow profits. In an uncertain ad market, consumer offerings are critical for publishers. In fact, Reuters Institute confirmed this strategy in early 2020 reporting that 50% of digital leaders identify reader revenue as their income focus for the year. Now, fast forward mid-fourth quarter in the midst of a global pandemic and we find publishers further prioritizing audience-first initiatives with new products.

Recently, I spoke with Constantine Kamaras — who is the project lead for best practices in digital publishing at OPA Europe — about the long game for publishers. Kamaras (CK) offered keen insight into the reader-centric model and shared highlights from their new report Subscription Strategies for Digital Publishers.

RP: In OPA Europe’s new report, you speak about a cultural transformation for many publishers. What do you mean by this and what is the significance to publisher operations?

CK: It does not refer so much to the pivot from an ad-centric to a reader-centric model. This is something so well documented it’s becoming a cliché. One should look beyond the headline as there are several “sub-manifestations” of this transformation. For instance, the new relentless emphasis on UX — be it in design, in user journey, in ease/speed of registration/subscription or indeed payment options.

Just as importantly, there is a new culture of self-reliance, notably on in-housing some critical tech. Publishers can then focus more on marketing efforts within their properties rather than platform “top-of-funnel” advertising. The significance here is not so much in restructuring operations but in the need for new talent in all these areas. After all, the principles of transversality and agility are well established by now. One should note that due to the pandemic-induced recession, there will be, sad as this is, plenty of great talent to choose from, especially from the agency side.

RP: Can you discuss the benefits of having editorial working with those in charge of subscription products?

CK: The benefits are quite clear: Deconstructing the offering translates into a better understanding of its key components — content, design, UX, marketing, underlying tech, etc. This emphatically underlines that editorial does not and cannot operate in a vacuum. They are part of a whole, possibly the most important part but only a part, nonetheless.

The game changer here is the generational shift. As the print generation of grand editors retires so does its zealous devotion to all aspects of the historic “Church and State” separation. Needless to say, there are fundamentals that are still — and should always remain — in place, for instance not permitting advertising considerations to influence editorial content. Still, a new generation comprehends nuances better in most areas such as developing product, deploying analytics to inform decisions etc. Editorial should work closely with the business side, particularly those that deliver on publishers’ most promising revenue source.

RP: How should premium publishers look at advertising as part of the long-term framework for their business model?

CK: Frankly, with some sense of optimism. The first thing to get rid of is the either/or mentality whereby one can have either an ad centric or user-centric model. The chronic disappointment over digital advertising trends — with the triopoly stubbornly dominant — is understandable. So is the consequent focus on subscriptions however several partly related developments may be pointing to a changing tide.

Regulation, browser policies and new tech capabilities are a confluence that distinctly elevates the value of first party data. Major brands know this well by now. Hence the growing discussions about various forms of second party data deals and partnerships. If one adds scale through alliances, then the ultimate differentiator can be unleashed: users’ trust. This can redefine — or indeed reverse — outdated models of brand safety. In a post-pandemic “trust economy,” quality journalism wins in advertising too.

Premium publishers, with their trusted and direct consumer relationships, are thinking differently about a reader-centric business model. Many editors now work with their subscription and product development teams to meet consumer needs versus making a product retrofit. And new in-house tech is working to create a well-defined user experience. These advances along with new product offerings place publishers in a prime position to generate demand.

Diversity, Equity & Inclusion | Industry-Research

Newsrooms evolve amidst the pressures of 2020

November 9, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

It’s an unprecedented time for individuals and industries. The forces of 2020 continue to reshape the media business — from a radical shift in work environments to calls for racial equity in industry ecosystems. Journalists find themselves in a unique position as they both report on these stories while being personally affected by them.

A new report from the Reuters Institute, Changing Newsrooms 2020, offers insight into today’s evolving news industry. The findings from leading researchers, Federica Cherubini, Nic Newman, and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen, are based on survey data analyses from 136 news industry leaders across 38 countries.

Remote working is here to stay

The pandemic forced many industries including the news media to adopt a work from home policy. And more than half of the news leaders surveyed report (55%) that their organizations are working more efficiently from home. However, at least eight in 10 respondents have concerns about employees maintaining relationships and communicating effectively.

Interestingly, nearly the same number of leaders (37%) think that they are more creative working remotely as those who do not (42%). Nevertheless, more than half of respondents’ report (54%) that they would like to go to the office a bit less often than before coronavirus. A full 21% state that they’d like to go back far less often.

News leaders report that their newsrooms are already planning future changes to their physical workspace. More than half of respondents’ (55%) state that their news organizations are looking to downsize their office space. Many think that a hybrid model could be a positive and practical solution for publishers with added flexibility and cost savings. Only 25% of news leaders report that they want to get back to an office environment.

Building a diverse news culture

The focus and attention on Black Lives Matter added external pressure on news organizations and their leaders to examine and address the lack of diversity in the newsroom. To date, 80% of news leaders report seeing progress in gender diversity. However, only 43%, see improvement in ethnic diversity.

News leaders state that publishers are doing a good job in junior staff diversity (84%) and a fairly good job with mid-level staff (59%). However, only 37% think their companies are doing a good job on diversity among senior level management.

Publishers are working to transform practices in the newsroom. They are now tracking newsroom diversity, both gender and ethnic, to include news sources, contributors, and interviewees. Importantly, ethnic diversity is cited as a top priority in the news industry.

Attracting and retaining talent

Publishers have been under pressure to transform the news media building new digital businesses and revenue models, particularly over the past decade. These companies need high quality teams to effectively manage and evolve their business strategies. More than half of the news leaders (53%) believe in their organization’s overall ability to attract and retain talent.

However, their confidence is much lower in recruiting and retaining talent across a few key departments. These include product, audience, and design (23%), data and insights (21%), and technology (18%). Further, in hiring new talent, publishers want to attract younger employees. It’s important to note that younger talent often looks for a highly competitive salary and demands high standards in a company’s culture and values.

The transformation of the newsroom’s work environment and social culture offers an opportunity for positive change. It may present challenges and potential disruptions. But its critical for publishers to stay the course to produce the necessary structural shifts in the news media.

Industry-Research | Revenue

How publishers can develop a content-to-commerce strategy

November 3, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

For quality publishers with strong consumer relationships, a content-to-commerce strategy offers a valuable revenue diversification approach. The International News Media Association’s (INMA) new report, Content-to-Commerce Brings Revenue in Post-Advertising World, outlines key considerations, strategies and their implementations to help publishers build this line of revenue.

While ecommerce may sound straightforward, successful implementation is not easy. First, a publisher’s brand must have a purpose, a reason to exist for the consumer. It needs to be authentic, possess an emotional quality, and present a personality. If a publisher meets this high bar, then it can begin the work of developing a commerce strategy because its content connection to a purchasable product will be valuable to consumers.

The major models

The INMA report identifies three basic content-to-commerce models:

Affiliate models, which send customers to an outside product link, earning the publishers a percentage of the purchase revenue.
Attribution marketing, which tracks touchpoints from consumer to purchase, assigning a value to the touchpoints in the journey. If the publisher, is an effect touchpoint, they receive a percentage of revenue.
Direct ecommerce, which offers company-owned products to consumers allowing for both higher revenue and higher conversions.

An integrated platform

Sweden’s Aftonbladet, a Schibsted-owned company and the largest news platform in the Nordic countries, partners with ecommerce platform Tipser. To sell products, Aftonbladet pairs its content with integrated ecommerce platform. They most often place embedded ecommerce in their features departments such as food and health. Aftonbladet made an important decision at the start not to integrate ecommerce in hard news content.

Aftonbladet recommends that publishers be completely transparent. For example, they need to communicate if they include embedded ecommerce elements in their content. An embedded ecommerce model should help build reader loyalty, not weaken it.

The content connection

Aftonbladet also creates content around ecommerce related products. If consumers search for a product of interest, it can lead to Aftonbladet’s library of content. It’s a great way to bring consumers to Aftonbladet content, connect them to products and increase overall traffic to the site.

The New York Times uses an ecommerce model with Wirecutter, which it acquired in 2016. Wirecutter is designed to help readers’ by offering them recommendations for retail purchases across multiple categories. The brand does a lot of the work for the consumer by providing product details, comparisons, and recommendations. Wirecutter Guides talk to category experts. They do the research, test the products, and find the best option in any category, then offer an unbiased recommendation.

Wirecutter maintains a reader-first mission, with a secondary focus on ecommerce. It also offers exclusive deals through their merchants and retailers. Wirecutter made an important editorial decision early on that product reviews cannot be influenced by a retail partnership. The core focus is to recommend the right product for the right consumer.

Question your approach

The INMA report identifies four key questions for publishers to address when identifying the right ecommerce model.

What do your readers need that you can provide that benefits them?
What’s the shortest journey to get it to them?
How can you make money from doing that?
How does your content lead the way?

As ever, a publisher’s primary goal must be to provide content that serves an audience. Then, they can build out an effective strategy to monetize their content and audience relationship throughout the customer’s ecommerce journey.

Industry-Research | Revenue

Publishers show digital growth amidst pandemic closures and consolidations

October 26, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

Digital subscriptions have helped shape a stronger business for publishers. FIPP’s latest Global Digital Subscriptions Snapshot (Q3 2020) shows that subscriptions are serving to support publishers during the pandemic. In fact, research by Press Gazette reports that during the Covid-19 crisis the largest newspaper groups in the US and UK gained more than one million new digital subscriptions. Not only are large publishers faring well but smaller, regional and specialist brands are also showing record subscriptions.

Despite positive performances in digital subscriptions, Covid-19 brings with it challenges to the industry. Zenith Media expects a 9% decline in internet ad spend this year. The agency estimates a 6% recovery in 2021, driven by the rescheduled Tokyo Olympics.

On a global front, the middle east and Africa will be hardest hit with a 20% decline in advertising revenue. Western Europe anticipates a 15% decline and Latin American a 13% decline in ad spend. The Asia Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe markets are estimated to decline by 8%, respectively. North America expects to register the smallest decline (7%) due to the large spend on political advertising this year.

FIPP Q3 findings:

News publishers’ subscription growth

The Athletic reports 1 million subscribers as of September 2020. Unfortunately, with only a few new subscribers in Q1 2020 and cancellation of live sporting events, the company laid off approximately 8% of its staff. In addition, there were pay cuts across the company to offset expenses.
Caixin Media in Beijing grew subscriptions by 70%, adding 210,000 new subscribers for a total of 510,000 this year. It’s the first media company in China to place all of its content behind a hard paywall.
Dow Jones reports that digital revenue now accounts for 71% of total revenue, up from 63% compared to the same time period last year. Total subscriptions, across print and digital products, is at 3.8 million, driven by a 28% increase in digital subscriptions. Interestingly, 2.2 million of the Wall Street Journal’s 3 million subscriptions are digital-only. Across the entire Dow Jones group, digital subscriptions account for 67% of subscription revenues.
Gannett is centering their business around digital transformation. To date they are close to one million paid digital subscribers.
The New York Times’s added 669,000 new digital subscriptions in 2Q 2020 for a total 5.7 million digital subscriber. In fact, for the first time ever, digital revenue now exceeds its print revenue. Overall, the company’s operating profit of $52.1 million is down 6.2% compared to same time period one year ago.

Magazine closures

South Africa magazine closures:
- Associated Media – company closure
- Caxton – selling off 80 titles
- Media 24 – closed 2 of 5 titles
UK magazine closures:
- Immediate Media – closed 11 titles
- Bauer Media UK – closed 10 titles
- Broadly – exited New Zealand, closed 8 titles and consolidated with Australian Mercury Capital
- PLC – closed 6 titles
- T1 media was acquired by Future

Streaming growth

Netflix consistently delivers content with new productions and licensing deals to the consumer market. As of Q2 2020, there are a 193 million subscribers globally.
Amazon Prime Video, part of Amazon Prime, is very successful in the SVOD market. Subscribers reached 150 million globally. The company does not break out Prime Video from Amazon Prime. The company does not provide details on active users of Prime Video. However, the Kantar Entertainment on Demand Report offers a third-party analysis SVOD users. The Kantar Q2 2020 analysis shows that Amazon Prime Video subscriptions account for 23% of all SVOD subscriptions. That marks a 14% increase from the prior quarter.
China’s merger discussions between Tencent Holdings and iQIYI could establish the world’s largest streaming service with more than 231 million paying subscribers.
Disney+ is exceeding all expectation with currently has more than 60.5 million subscribers.
Apple TV+ claims 10 million subscribers. However, many subscribers are part of a 1-year free trial offer because they are users of the hardware. Further, Bloomberg estimates that about half of Apple TV+ subscribers never used the service.

The coronavirus’ impact on the advertising industry further strained publisher revenues and forced several to close their doors and others to consolidate. The pandemic also showcased the consumers’ need for trusted news and entertainment content. This need feeds into the relationship of publisher and consumer. Its why consumers value the content and are willing to pay for it.

Industry-Research

Covid-19 presents opportunities for audience-focused publishers

October 20, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

A life-changing event is when something happens that reshapes everything in your life. And many people see the pandemic as a life-changing event. We’ve altered our work environment, transformed our social behavior, and changed our media habits. However, according to Damien Radcliffe’s new report The Publisher’s Guide to Navigating Covid-19, some Covid-era changes will become new norms. To capitalize on these opportunities, publishers need to emphasize their audience-first focus.

Key findings:

Renewed consumer focus

Businesses across different sectors are reporting negative financial impact due to Covid-19. The most significant revenue declines to date, according to WARC, are travel and tourism (-31%), leisure and entertainment (-29%), finance services (-18%), and retail (-15%).

Within the entertainment sector, the media business is showing financial declines for the year. GroupM expects the US advertising market performance to decline 13% this year (excluding political advertising for 2020’s presidential and other elections). WARC estimates advertising growth for three specific media platforms: social media, online video and search. The hardest hit medium will be newspapers. PwC’s Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2020-2024 report estimates newspaper advertising (print and online) in the U.K. will register a decline of 27% over the next five years Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2020-2024 report estimates newspaper advertising (print and online) in the U.K. will register a decline of 27% over the next five years.

With a downturn in advertising, publishers see the importance of a renewed focus on the audience. By doing so, they can accelerate their efforts to establish new revenue streams to lessen their dependency on advertising — an industry imperative that has come into even sharper focus of late. Finding the right path to fulfill audience needs can help publisher identify new revenue opportunities.

Audience-first directs path to new revenue

By all reports, consumption of content increased during the pandemic. In part, working from home during Covid-19 offered the audience more opportunities to consume content. There were marked rises in internet usage and streaming video viewing. Even local news publishers are benefitting from consumer interest in information relating to Covid-19 in their neighborhood.

Further, record traffic metrics and increased subscriptions illustrate a strong and trusted relationship between publisher and consumer. Publishers are also experiencing churn improvement according to Piano, a digital analytics company. Piano’s data analysis shows that U.S. publishers’ churn rate is flat and European publishers’ churn rate declined 34%.

Unfortunately, increased media usage alone does not equate to increased revenue. However, an engaged audience, producing less churn, can help direct a path to subscriptions, new product launches, and other monetization opportunities.

Getting back to normal

Even amidst the ongoing pandemic, consumers are trying to return to some sense of normal. According to a GlobalWebIndex (GWI) survey of more than 17,000 internet users in 20 countries, consumers no longer want to see Covid-related ad messaging. Further, Pew Research reports that 71% of US consumers say they need to take a break from news about the coronavirus. A full 43% report that news leaves them emotionally drained. Consumers are seeking out new content as a pathway to escapism.

Without a doubt, the pandemic has profoundly impacted consumer media habits. The increase in content consumption and subscriptions, cannot be taken for granted. Consumer boredom and discretionary income can easily change given today’s social and economic vulnerabilities. By renewing their audience-first strategy allows publishers will be able to focus on avenues for new revenue.

Industry-Research

Despite Covid-19 setback, PwC forecasts modest media and entertainment growth

September 15, 2020 Rande Price, Research VP – DCN

Consumer behavior was transformed by the shelter in place lifestyle during the pandemic. Stay at home policies not only impacted the way we work and shop but also how we consume media. We’ve seen significant changes in consumer media habits as well as those of media infrastructure. Closures of movie theaters and shutting down film and television productions altered our entertainment sources.

To access the effects of the coronavirus and adjust the entertainment and media (E&M) forecasts, PwC delayed the release of its annual Global Entertainment & Media Outlook. The new assessment comes with the realization that for consumers, E&M is centered in the home. It’s now more remote, more virtual and more streamed. PwC estimates that in 2020 the E&M world declines by 5.6% or $120 billion in absolute terms compared to 2019. However, they project the sector grows by 6.4% in 2021. Further, overall revenue grows 2.8% at a compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024.

Additional findings:

Overall, advertising is expected to recover slowly through 2024. Digital advertising is the important vehicle with mobile advertising revenue as its growth story. Mobile ad revenue is expected to grow at 88.4% with a 60% share of revenue.

Cord-cutting continues to rise especially in North America and new over-the-top (OTT) services challenge the global dominance of streaming giants. pWC forecasts the OTT market to almost double in size from $46.4 billion in 2019 to $86.8 billion in 2024.
Subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) revenue is expected to exceed box office revenue this year. It’s projected to rise more than twice the size of box office revenue by 2024. Related, global cinema revenues are expected to drop plunge 66% in 2020 and is unlikely to regain momentum.

Newspaper revenue declines continue through 2024 declining advertising revenue combined with high paper production and distribution costs.
Consumer magazine competition continues to increase from major tech players, magazine aggregators and digital publishers.

Covid-19 fast-tracked many new business strategies for media companies. This shift amplifies the need for media businesses to closely follow changes in consumer media behavior. The ability to pivot operations to meet consumer needs helps generate and diversity revenue opportunities.