Despite a steady stream of negative news about social media platforms, eMarketer predicts that marketers will continue to invest ad dollars there. eMarketer’s US Social Trends for 2019 foresees continued fallout from 2018’s social media scandals and revelations, particularly for Facebook. It appears that marketers will continue to advertise on the problematic platform, despite declines in usage and engagement along with increased regulatory scrutiny.
For
Facebook-owned Instagram, the report points to the likelihood of “growing pains”
and investigations into data practices and privacy, in part stemming from the
actions of its parent company. Overall, eMarketer says that 2019 will be a year
to watch in terms of changing user behavior and engagement across social media
platforms.
For Facebook
and Instagram, eMarketer predicts that:
- They will bring in a combined $67.25
billion in worldwide ad revenue, up 23.5% from 2018.
- They will see US expenditures increase
20.6%, to $27.57 billion this year.
- Time spent on Facebook among US users
will remain flat this year, at 40 minutes per day.
- Time spent on Instagram will inch up
only slightly, to 27 minutes from 26 minutes in 2018.
However,
the report points out that, much as marketers have had trouble shifting ad
dollars away from linear TV despite declining audiences, they won’t be inclined
to quit Facebook either, even in light of its mounting problems. In fact, Next
year, eMarketers predicts that marketers will put $32.18 billion into social
ads, with the vast majority—$27.57 billion—spent on Facebook. That will bring
social ad spending to 47% of TV ad spending ($69.17 billion) this year.
For
Snapchat, eMarketer predicts that usage will slow. However, the company will
have better luck garnering revenues from its existing users. eMarketer estimates
that Snapchat’s US average ad revenue per user (AARPU) will top $10 this year
($10.18 to be exact), up 30.4% over 2018 (when AARPU grew just 10.9%).
Other eMarketer
2019 productions include:
- An explosion of the stories format (followed by a backlash)
- The spread of vertical video
- The newsfeed will maintain its dominance as social media’s primary UI
- Social shopping will gain traction
Given the
turbulence in the social media landscape, we’ll all need to keep an eye on
Facebook’s place and popularity in the marketing landscape as well as the ripple
effect that increased scrutiny on platforms data usage will have on all
players. It will also be interesting to see if the stories format remains
relevant in the long haul, as well as continued shifts in the perception of, and
tactics around, influencer marketing.