The video market is fragmenting — but the prize is bigger than ever. According to MediaRadar analysis, U.S. ad spend will surpass $500 billion by 2028, with video alone accounting for $220 billion.  The question for media leaders isn’t if those dollars will flow, but who will capture them.

Sports, social video, and AI-driven targeting are rewriting the rules of engagement. For executives, the opportunity is clear: act now to secure share, or risk losing ground to platforms and competitors who move faster.

Sports and streaming: a new business lever

Live sports remain the most valuable premium video inventory, commanding CPMs north of $14, according to MediaRadar 1H 2025 estimates. Yet the structure of rights is rapidly shifting. In the 2025–26 NFL season, MediaRadar projects:

• 46% of games will be simulcast across linear and streaming
• 46% will be linear-only.
• 8% of games (20 total) will stream exclusively.

This fragmentation isn’t chaos. It’s leverage. Publishers are using it to their advantage by bundling across platforms and segmenting audiences more precisely, tapping into the 11% year-over-year growth in digital channels and the projected $220 billion in video ad spend by 2028, according to MediaRadar analysis.  With Amazon, YouTube, and Netflix expanding coverage, publishers positioned across both linear and streaming can bundle inventory, maximize yield, and deliver addressable audiences at scale.

Case in Point: In 2024, live sports streaming alone neared $6 billion in ad spend according to MediaRadar analysis. Platforms like Amazon and Peacock benefited most. However, publishers who can sell across channels stand to capture premium demand.

Social and user-generated video: the budget shift

Scripted content once accounted for 70% of U.S. viewing; today, it’s closer to 30%. User-generated content (UGC) now represents nearly half of all viewing according to MediaRadar 1H 2025 estimates. While CPMs average just $4, the scale is undeniable – and advertisers and media executives alike are chasing it.

Automotive, finance, and CPG brands are redirecting budgets from scripted into YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. For publishers, the strategic question is no longer whether to invest in these ecosystems, but how – via influencer collaborations, branded content, and social partnerships that extend reach and diversify revenue.

AI: from wild card to margin engine

AI is often positioned as experimental, but for publishers it’s becoming a margin mandate. According to MediaRadar’s analysis, AI is reshaping three critical areas:

• Search & discovery: AI helps audiences cut through fragmentation to find premium content — and helps publishers surface it more efficiently, compressing the cost of audience acquisition while expanding the yield from discovery.
• Information management: By automating insights and replacing armies of analysts with real-time optimization, AI dramatically compresses operational costs and expands yield through faster, smarter decisioning.
• Content generation: In creative and bidding workflows, AI streamlines production and media planning, compressing content development costs and expanding yield by scaling personalization and campaign throughput.

For media executives, the implication is simple: AI compresses cost and expands yield. Integrating AI into targeting and personalization is no longer optional; it’s the difference between competing on price versus competing on value.

What publishers need to do now

The next 24 months will determine market leaders. Here’s how to protect and grow share:

• Align with sports: Premium live events still command the highest CPMs. NFL streaming rights on Amazon, YouTube, and Netflix open fresh monetization channels.
• Leverage social and UGC: Nearly half of viewing happens here. Automotive and finance brands are already investing heavily in YouTube and Instagram. Publishers need to meet them where spend is flowing.
• Invest in AI-driven targeting: Precision targeting turns fragmented inventory into measurable, ROI-driven campaigns. Dynamic ad personalization increases yield.
• Double down on data: First-party insights are pricing power. Even in a soft ad market, MediaRadar analysis found digital channels grew 11% YoY in H1 2025.

Looking ahead

The path forward is clear: streaming, sports, and AI will define the next era of video advertising. Together, they represent the pillars of a new video economy—one where reach, relevance, and rights management will determine who thrives and who fades.  

As we said in our recent webinar from the State of the Industry Series: “In times of change, data is your greatest advantage.” Executives who act now—before platforms consolidate power again—will set the pace for the industry.

---

About the Author

Matt Krepsik, CEO of MediaRadar, is an experienced media executive with a demonstrated history of working across the media and information technology industries. Skilled in big data, artificial intelligence, technology, marketing, and market research, he is a seasoned business development professional with global leadership experience.