Social media and digital advertising dynamics are once again at a critical juncture. On January 19th, TikTok resumed service in the United States after a brief disruption, much to the relief of its 115 million U.S. users. President Donald Trump’s executive order to delay banning the app for 75 days allows TikTok to seek a U.S. partner to address security concerns. However, TikTok’s future uncertainty is shaking up the digital ecosystem as major platforms and advertisers prepare for potential disruptions.

Sensor Tower’s latest data paints a vivid picture of TikTok’s role in the U.S. media and advertising market. The platform drives 88 million daily hours of consumer engagement, generates approximately $2 billion in annual consumer spending, and commands an 8% share of the digital advertising market. Should TikTok face another ban, competitors like Meta and Alphabet, alternatives like Snapchat, and emerging platforms are all poised to capitalize.

Consumer engagement: the TikTok effect

TikTok’s popularity has reshaped how users consume short-form videos. However, its dominance in engagement reveals a troubling trend. Overall time spent on short-form video apps dropped by 4% year-over-year in 2024, with TikTok’s U.S. engagement declining by 12% in Q4.

Despite this decline, TikTok’s success has forced competitors to innovate aggressively. Platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube ramp up their short-form video offerings with features such as Reels and Shorts. In Q4 2024, users spent 54 million hours daily on YouTube Shorts, 28 million on Instagram Reels, and 26 million on Facebook Reels. Notably, Facebook Reels experienced the most robust growth, with engagement rising 87% year-over-year. Instagram (+18%) and YouTube (+7%) would follow.

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Snapchat, too, is stepping up its game. The rollout of its “Simple Snapchat” interface aims to streamline access to Spotlight, its short-form video feature. This move positions the platform to attract a larger share of TikTok’s audience in the event of a ban.

Advertising dollars at stake

In 2024, Tiktok platform held an 8% share of U.S. digital ad spend, with Walmart, Google, and Amazon ranking among its top advertisers. If TikTok exits the U.S. market, Sensor Tower projects that platforms like Meta and YouTube will inherit significant portions of its ad revenue. Specifically, Meta is expected to gain four percentagepoints of TikTok’s ad spend share, split between Instagram (three percentage points) and Facebook (one percentagepoint). YouTube and Snapchat are likely to gain two percentage points.

This shift would reinforce Facebook’s position as the U.S. social media ad spend leader and enable it to command a 35% share by Q4 2025, followed by Instagram (30%) and YouTube (19%). Meanwhile, Snapchat’s share could rise to 6%, with smaller platforms like Pinterest and Reddit collectively accounting for less than 5%.

In-app purchases offer lucrative opportunities

TikTok’s innovative monetization strategies have set a high bar for competitors. Since its launch, U.S. users spend over $4 billion on TikTok Coins, an in-app currency for tipping creators and promoting videos. In 2024, TikTok’s $1.7 billion in U.S. in-app revenue outpaces Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and Snapchat combined.

If TikTok exits the U.S. market, its competitors will inherit a significant portion of this revenue stream. Sensor Tower predicts that Instagram’s in-app revenue could surge by 790% year-over-year in Q4 2025, more than double the growth rate of its peers. YouTube, however, would maintain its leadership, with projected in-app revenue of $442 million in Q4 2025, roughly double that of Instagram and Facebook.

Lessons from India’s TikTok ban

India’s 2020 TikTok ban provides valuable insights into what might happen in the US. Before its ban, TikTok was India’s largest short-form video platform, boasting 169 million monthly active users and a significant share of app engagement. After the ban, platforms like Instagram and YouTube surged in downloads and engagement, while local players such as Moj and Josh quickly gained traction.

Sensor Tower estimates that Instagram and YouTube could see similar growth in the US, with their engagement hours rising by 40% and 12% year-over-year, respectively, in Q4 2025. Snapchat growth may lead the pack with an 89% increase in daily engagement hours, driven by its Spotlight feature and streamlined interface.

Challenges and opportunities

The media industry, particularly those in the social and short form video space, cannot ignore TikTok’s vast influence on consumer behavior, advertising, and monetization. Competitors are already responding by enhancing short-form video features and exploring new monetization strategies. Platforms that successfully replicate TikTok’s creator-driven ecosystem—complete with seamless in-app payment systems for tipping and promotions—will likely capture the lion’s share of user engagement and revenue.

With billions of dollars in ad spend and consumer engagement at stake, media companies and advertisers will closely monitor how this story unfolds. Whether TikTok stays in the U.S. market or not, its success—and potential absence—continues to shape the future of social media and digital advertising.