After years of volatility—shifting buyer expectations, uneven ad spend, and constant platform change—this year is shaping up to be a defining one for media sellers. Unlike previous cycles, the uncertainty has given way to clearer buyer behavior. Advertisers are no longer experimenting. They’re standardizing how they plan, evaluate, and invest. The question for media sellers isn’t whether demand will return, but who will earn it.

Based on what we’re seeing across the market, and reinforced by data shared in MediaRadar’s State of the Industry: 2026 Advertising Predictions webinar, let’s dive into three trends we’re predicting will shape how buyers allocate budgets in 2026 and how publishers must evolve to capture share.

1. Buyers are planning around outcomes, not environments

In 2026, advertisers are entering the market with fewer experimental dollars and clearer performance mandates. According to EMarketer data, U.S. media spend is projected to grow from $622B in 2025 to more than $838B by 2028. But that growth is flowing disproportionately to channels and partners that can demonstrate impact.

At the same time, open web display advertising continues to lose ground. MediaRadar data shows open web display spend flattening and declining year-over-year through 2024 and 2025, as budgets move toward higher-impact video and direct, curated buys.

Buyers are now planning backward from outcomes (awareness lift, site traffic, and performance signals). They are also asking sellers to prove how inventory, formats, and creative directly contribute to those goals.

• Budgets are consolidating with fewer partners as buyers look to simplify execution and measurement. 
• Packages need to align to use cases (launches, seasonal moments, competitive conquesting, etc.) rather than impressions alone. 
• Performance benchmarks and historical proof points are increasingly required in RFPs.

Publishers that can clearly connect their offerings to outcomes, and support that story with data, are earning larger, more strategic commitments.

2. Creative is becoming the primary lever for differentiation

As addressability narrows, creative has emerged as the primary driver of performance. There’s a clear shift in where attention, and budgets, are going. Programmatic video ad spend alone is expected to approach $150B by 2027, according to EMarketer data, and CTV is no longer treated as  an incremental reach-only channel.

Across industries, CTV ad spend is growing aggressively. For example, according to EMarketer and MediaRadar data, automotive CTV spend is projected to grow from $3.1B in 2025 to $5.2B by 2028, while CPG is expected to nearly double from $2.6B to $4.9B over the same period. 

These gains are being driven not just by audience reach, but by creative formats that move people. Simply put, message-level performance is shaping buying decisions. Celebrity-led advertising increased 42% year-over-year, rising from 9.8% of total ad spend in 2024 to 13.9% in 2025 — a signal that advertisers are leaning into creative that builds trust and emotional connection.

The implications are clear:

• Creative effectiveness is increasingly used as a proxy for media effectiveness.
• Category-level creative insights (tone, format, spokesperson strategy)  strengthen both upfront and scatter conversations. 
• High-impact and custom units perform best when informed by performance data, not intuition.

The most effective sellers in 2026 aren’t just selling space. They’re helping advertisers tell engaging stories and make smarter creative decisions before campaigns go live.

3. First-party data needs to be activated, not just collected

Nearly every publisher has invested in first-party data, but one point is clear: possession is no longer enough. Activation is what buyers value.

As programmatic buying shifts away from the open exchange, control is consolidating. Today, according to data from ANA via Marketing Drive, 59% of programmatic ad spend flows through private marketplaces versus 41% through the open marketplace. And, when CTV is included, that split widens to 66% private versus 34% open.

At the same time, discovery behavior is changing. According to EMarketer, AI-driven search is projected to grow from just 1% of total search ad spend today to 13.6% by 2029, compressing the path from intent to action and reducing the role of the traditional click altogether. In this environment, vague audience claims quickly lose credibility.

• Audience segments must be clearly defined, transparent, and tied to real outcomes.
• First-party data should support planning, creative strategy, and optimization, not live in isolation. 
• Context, creative, and data must work together to drive measurable performance.

Publishers that can explain how their data enhances effectiveness—rather than simply replacing targeting—will stand out in an increasingly competitive market.

What media sellers need to do now

The opportunity in 2026 is real, but so is the competition. To protect and grow share, media sellers should focus on three priorities:

• Lead with outcomes, supported by proof
• Use creative intelligence to guide advertiser strategy
• Turn first-party data into a clear, buyer-friendly value story

2026 is not about chasing the next new thing. It’s about execution. Media sellers who adapt their approach now won’t just keep pace with buyers, they’ll help define how the market moves next.

MediaRadar will continue exploring these shifts in our State of the Industry webinar series. Our next session, Video Everywhere—Winning in the New Era of CTV, takes place on March 19. It will dive deeper into how streaming, CTV, and digital video are converging — and what that means for media sellers navigating a rapidly evolving video landscape.

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About the author

Fan Shi Blackwell is the VP of Strategic Partnerships at MediaRadar, where she focuses on building high-impact alliances across AdTech, programmatic, retail media, data, and e-commerce. With over 15 years of experience, she helps platforms, brands, and agencies turn marketing intelligence into measurable growth, profitability, and ROI through omni-channel strategy, data-driven decisioning, and performance optimization.